Inflation has been above the 2% historic target every month since February 2021, according to the core personal expenditures index.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric is expected to cool to the slowest pace since June, but glacial progress on taming price pressures overall will keep policymakers cautious about lowering interest rates further.

Getting inflation under control since the worst surge in decades has been a bumpy process in recent months. New data on Friday showed a little progress, but also an unexpected pullback in consumer spending,